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Sensing he was falling behind, Blaine eventually made the decision to launch a campaign tour. While he was not the first presidential candidate to do so, his course was certainly unusual, and demonstrated to the Democrats that Blaine was worried. The candidate delivered some 425 speeches, ending the campaign with nine days in the key state of New York. In the city of New York in particular, Blaine hoped to win some Irish-American votes, which would be a notable accomplishment for a Republican.
With only a few days left in the campaign, Blaine listened from the speaker's platform as a Presbyterian minister urged that real Republicans would refuse to leave their party and to identify "with the party whose antecedents have been rum, Romanism, and rebellion." Despite the mudslinging and bigoted nature of the remark, when Blaine rose to speak he made no effort to distance himself from the comments. Democrats plastered the three "r's" over every Democratic newspaper for the four days or so before the election. By so doing, they insured that no Democrat would desert Cleveland, and that Democrats would turn out in large numbers to avenge the insult. Blaine did eventually issue a weak statement saying speakers shouldn't belittle other people's religion, but his comments were too little, too late.
The results were so close that the victor was not known for several days after the election. Cleveland carried the South plus four other states, with New York in doubt. Finally the news emerged: Cleveland had carried New York by 1,149 votes. He was the first Democratic presidential candidate to win an election since 1856, and he had won it with less than a majority.
What if the economy weren't in a mild recession in 1884? Voters tend to blame hard times on the party in power, and Cleveland undoubtedly benefited from this. With the economy on a sounder footing, Blaine might well have been victorious.
What if the Republicans had nominated someone with less of a checkered past? If Republicans had managed to find someone with the rectitude of a Hayes or a Garfield, the Mugwumps would not have bolted, and the Republicans should have had little problem hanging on to the presidency.
What if New York City politicians weren't so adept at ballot-box stuffing? After the election many Republicans charged that certain Democratic ward bosses waited for the early returns before sending in the returns from their neighborhood, first asking the state party leaders "how many votes are needed to elect Cleveland?"
What if that Republican speaker hadn't made the rum, Romanism, and rebellion comments, or what if Blaine had disavowed them promptly? Blaine might have won a few Irish-American votes--and recall that Blaine's loss in the Empire State was by a margin of only 1,149 votes. Thus he needed only 575 voters in New York to change their minds and move themselves from the Democratic column into the Republican.
What if it hadn't rained on election day? The crucial state of New York saw rain upstate on election day. The rain held down turnout in a part of the state where Blaine was expected to do well.
What if the Prohibition Party hadn't been on the ballot? John P. St. John, the Prohibition Party nominee, won 25,000 votes in New York. Again, with Blaine losing the state by only 1,149 votes, St. John's role looms large. There is little doubt the Prohibition Party drew primarily Republican voters away from their party. The Prohibition Party generally took the attitude that the Democratic Party was hopeless, but that the Republican Party ought to know better. Its attacks on Republican candidates were bitter, and most Prohibition Party leaders were former Republicans.
© 2001 by Stephen Cresswell
Ed. Note: Reprinted by permission. Stephen Cresswell's political memorabilia website can be found at
http://www.msys.net/cress/list.htm
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