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The special election road gets no better for Bush operatives. The next special election is set for June 1 in South Dakota where Stephanie Herseth, the Democrat who lost to former governor Bill Janklow last year, is leading her opponent by 29 points at this juncture. Following that election is one in Louisiana where Democrats have an excellent shot at picking up GOP congressman Tauzin's seat in a district that is a tossup but in a state that has been trending Democrat in recent years.
Starting last year in a special runoff election for U.S. Senate in Louisiana the GOP has not been able to translate its agenda into election victories. That runoff in the Cajun State pitted Mary Landrieu against a handpicked White House candidate. The White House practically moved to Louisiana as the president, vice-president, first lady and nearly every cabinet official visited the state drumming up dollars and votes for the GOP candidate. It was at that point when Landrieu made the campaign a referendum on George W. Bush and his policies. Landrieu won easily.
Polling public opinion is nothing but capturing a snapshot of time. Nine months before an election is an eternity in politics. New polling shows John Kerry beating Bush by 12 points and John Edwards beating Bush by 10 points. At the same time the Bush negatives are going up.
All of these factors combined present a dark future for the Bush White House. To be sure, there is plenty of time for the administration to pull Osama Bin Laden at an appropriate time from wherever he's probably being housed to uptick the president's numbers and win in November. But barring pulling Osama out from a top hat the president may join his father in the halls of one term presidents.
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