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By the Union of Concerned Scientists-- July 24, 2004
The United States is currently attempting to develop several components of a missile defense system designed to protect U.S. territory from attack by long-range (strategic) ballistic missiles.
Under the Bush administration, missile defenses have received $7 billion to $9 billion annually, and the FY05 budget request is more than $10 billion. In December 2002, the Bush administration announced that it would deploy the first phase of a rudimentary missile defense system by the time of the 2004 presidential elections--even though the system is in the very early stages of testing.
This extraordinary emphasis on missile defense represents misplaced priorities. The administration's top priority should instead be combating the threat of nuclear terrorism by increasing its programs to keep nuclear warheads and materials out of the hands of terrorists. The Bush administration, however, is giving this problem a fraction of the attention and funding being given to missile defense. The missile defense system being rushed into deployment is not relevant to the war on terrorism.
The system the Bush administration plans to deploy by 2004 will have essentially no defense capability.
The technology needed for an effective missile defense system still doesn't exist. All the systems being developed are in early stages of research and development, and will have undergone only rudimentary testing by the time they will be fielded in 2004-2006. Operational testing will not have begun and test conditions will remain far from realistic. None of the X-band radars that are central to the system will be built by 2004.
And even if the technology worked perfectly, the systems being deployed are vulnerable to countermeasures that are easier to build than the long-range missile on which they would be placed. The UCS-MIT report Countermeasures was instrumental in calling attention to this problem and contributed to President Clinton's 2000 decision not to deploy the system the Bush administration is now fielding.
The United States needs Russian and Chinese cooperation on a range of non-proliferation and security issues. Getting that cooperation will be easier if the United States does not proceed with a missile defense program that Russia and China find potentially threatening. And China appears likely to build up its long-range nuclear arsenal in response to deployment of U.S. missile defenses.
UCS is working to keep the country from making a costly mistake. We've prepared technical analyses of the testing program to illustrate what it does--and does not--show about the capabilities of the systems being developed. We've presented testimony before Congress, and are working to increase congressional understanding and oversight of the program. We're making sure the press and the public understand the issue. We've talked to scientists in other countries to understand their concerns about this program, and helped other governments understand what the system can and can't do.
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