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A slide show, presented to various audiences by James B. Lockhart III, deputy commissioner of Social Security, says that "benefit cuts would be drastic" after 2042 if the Social Security law and payroll tax rates continue unchanged.
A policy brief prepared by the agency says those benefit cuts "would double the poverty rate of Social Security beneficiaries aged 64 to 78," increasing the number of indigent people in that age bracket to 1.8 million, from 875,000.
Witold R. Skwierczynski, president of the Social Security Council of the federation of government employees, said: "Some of the information being imparted by agency officials is not factual, not accurate. There is no immediate crisis."
In interviews, other Social Security employees expressed similar views. But council members were more willing to allow use of their names because a federal law generally protects them against "penalty or reprisal" when they speak publicly or testify before Congress.
Social Security employees denied that their concerns were motivated by a bureaucratic mentality, a fear of change or a desire to protect their jobs.
"There's a lot more to it than that," said Colleen M. Kelley, president of the National Treasury Employees Union, which represents lawyers and paralegals at the Social Security Administration. "There's a genuine concern about how people will live when they retire, a real fear that Social Security benefits could be eroded by private accounts."
The official policy brief, analyzing the consequences of inaction, was written by Andrew G. Biggs, the associate commissioner of Social Security for retirement policy. Mr. Biggs, 37, joined President Bush in making the case for private accounts at a White House forum this week.
When he was an analyst at the Cato Institute, Mr. Biggs championed private accounts, saying they "would pay substantially higher retirement benefits than the current Social Security program" because some payroll taxes could be invested in stocks and corporate bonds rather than in government securities.
In 2003, just before he became associate commissioner, Mr. Biggs said that AARP, the lobby for older Americans, was "spreading disinformation" about the risks of private accounts. Mr. Biggs, who has a doctorate from the London School of Economics, said critics were wrong to suggest that personal accounts meant large cuts in benefits. In fact, he said, Social Security cannot pay the benefits it has promised.
The combination of benefits from traditional Social Security and a private account would substantially exceed what the current program can actually pay, Mr. Biggs said.
Other analysts, including the Congressional Budget Office, have reached a different conclusion. They say the combination of benefits from the trust fund and individual accounts is likely to be less than actual benefits under the current system.
In a document sent each year to millions of workers, the government emphasizes the looming financial problems. The document shows a worker's earnings history and estimated future benefits. But it says the scheduled benefits could be cut because "without changes, by 2042 the Social Security trust fund will be exhausted."
Agency employees raised their concerns with Reginald F. Wells, a deputy commissioner of Social Security, and two associate commissioners, David L. Feder and Roger McDonnell. Mr. McDonnell confirmed that employee representatives had shared their concerns with him, but he declined to say how he replied.
Robert M. Ball, who worked at the Social Security Administration for three decades and was commissioner under Democratic and Republican presidents from 1962 to 1973, said: "It's fine for the agency to answer factual questions, but it's unusual to use the Civil Service organization to push a political agenda, especially because what they're saying is not true. The program is not going bankrupt."
When asked about the outlook for Social Security, several agency officials pointed to a White House "fact sheet" that says, "By 2042, when workers in their mid-20's begin to retire, the system will be bankrupt - unless we act now to save it."
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