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trade, probably can't match Guzman's glove work at short - but the salary differential is stunning when you compare the OBPs of Guzman and Carroll. (For any non-baseball types who are still with us, in a thousand plate appearances Carroll would reach base safely 371 times but Guzman just 309…meaning Carroll gets 62 more chances to score.)
All this isn't to say Robinson is unaware that he needs an OBP machine at the top of his batting order. Last year he often hit Brad Wilkerson in the top slot, though BW has legit power (32 HRs). Brad put up a fine .374 OBP. But Robinson knows Wilkerson, an outfielder-first baseman, would serve best this year in what is called the meat of the order, driving home table-setters rather than serving as one himself.
So Robinson is trying to make Endy Chavez over into a leadoff hitter, but this outfielder shows signs of being a career free swinger with little feel for the nuances of working a pitcher and taking an occasional walk. Last year Chavez posted an OBP of .312, walking only 29 times in over 500 plate appearances.
It appears obvious Carroll won't crack the lineup and become the leadoff hitter, despite the fact his offensive skills scream that he's ready for that role; it's also likely that Chavez is a no-win project for the top spot and Wilkerson is needed lower in the order.
So here's a suggestion: Robinson this year should consider replacing Wilkerson in the leadoff spot with Nick Johnson, the projected starting first-baseman who came over from the Yankees some time back but was injury-plagued much of last year with the Expos.
He is a legitimate doubles hitter with occasional home run power who has a honed eye and can work pitchers well. Despite injuries last year, he posted a .359 OBP, and the previous year with the Yanks he put up a gaudy .422 OBP. In that 2003 season, he walked 70 times in fewer than 400 plate appearances.
Clearly this is a man who knows where first base is, offensively as well as on defense.
Though Johnson is enough of a power hitter to project for a role lower in the lineup, and doesn't look like your normal leadoff type, he actually could (and, I contend - given that Carroll can't win the job - should) become the Nationals' new leadoff man. He even could steal occasionally (had a half dozen with some 290 plate appearances last year, five with about 390 the year prior).
If Carroll's skills don't ring a bell for Robinson, Johnson's surely should. Perhaps the Catch 22 for Robinson is that Carroll has too little power, Johnson too much (along with an injury-plagued past that means he might be at risk should he steal more).
Despite steroids and hero worship of home run hitters, there is hope that the homer -- that creature of confined ballparks and the lively ball - may have seen its best days.
Time was (we're talking 19th century here) when baseball was a pastoral game played in cow pastures with no fences. Those were the true days of baseball when a home run meant you had to run home (all the way around the bases to beat a relay throw from the outfield).
When baseball went urban, however, fences became a necessity and the lively ball era brought what should be called the home trot. Remember this: had there been no fences, Babe Ruth would still have hit the lively ball a mile but would have had to dash around the bases to get a dinger. Perhaps he would have stayed in better shape and played longer.
The game began as a contest calling for power and speed. It still does, but the speed requirement abruptly stops when the ball leaves the yard. That's why the triple is now the most beautiful (and scarce) hit in the game. That's why the long throw from the deep right field corner to cut down a speedster bidding to stretch a double into a triple is a premiere defensive play to behold.
But the days without fences are gone forever. So why do I say the homer may lessen in importance? Well, it won't lessen enough for me, but some owners, general managers and field managers are awakening to the importance of OBP. Because of the nature of at bats, OBP isn't always the strong point of players who lust after the HR.
There are exceptions. First-baseman/designated hitter Frank Thomas of the Chicago White Sox comes to mind. With Thomas, when he's healthy, it's often HR or W. His eye is uncanny and he'll take a walk rather than swing for the fences on a pitch that doesn't suit him. Outfielder Bobby Abreu of the Philadelphia Phillies is another with his .400 plus OBP the past three years. Of course, Abreu is another of those doubles hitters strong enough to hit
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