OIL  (CONT)


Is the price of oil -- in economic, military, political and moral costs -- really worth it?

Some Americans say yes. "This, indeed, is the essence of the Bush administration's energy policy, which calls for maximizing our petroleum supply at any price," Klare writes.

Other Americans, with different fundamental values, say no. Those values, including "the safety of our young men and women in uniform, take precedence over material advantage.... A strategy that relies on the use of military force to slake our thirst for cheap petroleum is a strategy we cannot afford."

If we continue to depend on oil, Klare concludes, "all that is certain is that we will pay for it with an increasing sacrifice of blood."
David Goodstein focuses on energy production more than foreign policy. In
"Out of Gas," he poses the dilemma facing the world.
"Obviously we have unintentionally created a trap for ourselves. We will, so to speak, run out of gas. There is no question about that. There's only a finite amount left in the tank. When will it happen?"

Before the 1950s, oil geologists generally hooted down any suggestions that new oil discoveries could not go on forever, Goodstein writes.

In 1956, M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist for Shell Oil Co., predicted the rate at which oil was produced in the Lower 48 states would peak around 1970, then fall rapidly. He was right.

Today, geologists predict the world will reach Hubbert's Peak for oil production in the next 10 years.

Hubbert's followers believe the real crisis will come not when the last drop of oil is produced, but when that peak is reached and oil production starts to decline. The crisis will be huge when it comes, since there is an ever-increasing demand for oil every year.
Goodstein sees no clear solution to the impending crisis. But it must include a major combination of nuclear and solar power, with minimal contributions from hydropower and wind power.

Goodstein does not mince words. He predicts the world will soon face very difficult times.

But "we Americans are profligate users of energy," while our leaders are "reluctant even to acknowledge that there's a problem," he writes.

Klare and Goodstein also mention increasing dangers from global warming, generated by burning fossil fuels.
This pending disaster is detailed in a third recently published book,
"Boiling Point."

"The climate crisis is far more than just an environmental issue. It is a civilizational issue," author Ross Gelbspan writes.
We must cut our use of carbon-based fossil fuels by 70 percent in the near future to save the Earth. It has already begun falling apart, piece by piece.

Polar icecaps break up, mountaintop glaciers melt and our oceans get warmer and warmer.

"The solution to the climate crisis involves a high-stakes battle with big coal, big oil and the immense financial resources and political levers at their disposal," Gelbspan warns.

Solutions must be drastic and they must come soon. It just might already be too late to save our Earth.
And oil, the driving force behind the coming disaster, will run out.

"It may not happen for 10, 15 or 20 years," Klare writes. "But it will happen."

Goodstein warns, "Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime in this century unless we can find a way to live without fossil fuels."

Most of us alive today will live to see the consequences. All of our young children will.

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