BATTLE  (CONT)

an ultimatum to Japan to withdraw and in September sent a naval force to patrol the disputed territory.

So far, China has backed off, but there is no question that it expects at least a compromise settlement that the Japanese, themselves vulnerable over oil, are reluctant to concede. The US has to be careful to keep China onside. It wants that country's support over North Korea and it does not want it confronting Japan over oil, capitalizing on America being overstretched in Afghanistan and Iraq. Ahmadinejad has read the runes well.

So has Russia's Vladimir Putin. If Europe and Britain want secure long-term Russian oil and gas supplies, then it had better allow Russian companies the right to buy up European companies and not expect reciprocity. Last week, state-owned Gazprom did a deal with the Germans and Blair ran up the white flag, saying it could buy Centrica, owner of British Gas.

It's a new world. Henry Kissinger thinks that the 21st-century struggle for oil reserves will match the 19th-century fight for colonies. The dangers are obvious. Britain in all this is the doe-eyed Bambi, bleating its faith in market forces in a world of predators.

We should urgently slow down the depletion rate of North Sea oil and gas and establish a British strategic reserve and, with that protection, begin determinedly to build an economy that is not dependent on oil and gas. We should get serious about energy efficiency for solid environmental and strategic reasons. We should tax aviation fuel. We must accelerate our investment in renewable energy. We must research how to burn coal cleanly. And we must commission new nuclear reactors.

We have to move on all fronts fast. The case is usually made in terms of climate change, but it is more than that. Unless we confront and change the emerging balance of world power, the consequent oil conflagrations could make the conflicts of the 20th century look tame.

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