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unexpected real-world events could intervene. Nonetheless, the Pew poll strongly suggests that unless the Democrats completely self-destruct, they should be the odds-on favorites to win the presidency in 2008 -- and perhaps for years after.
Which could lead to a fascinating intra-party debate about whether the Democrats should play it safe by nominating the candidate with the most centrist appeal (presumably Hillary Clinton, although that is sure to be contested) or capitalize on having a rare head start in the polls by going with a glamorous but risky newcomer like Barack Obama.
But the significance of the Pew study, the latest in a series that started in 1987, goes beyond Bush or the upcoming election. On virtually every issue, it shows that the public holds views that are closer to those of the Democrats than the Republicans -- and that long-term trends are moving in that direction, too. For the GOP, its move-to-the-right strategy paid short-term dividends, but that ploy is now looking like a case of live by the sword, die by the sword. Its greatest challenge is now to find a way to recapture the political center without alienating the right-wing base to which it has so effectively pandered. For it looks like hard-right positions aren't playing in Peoria anymore.
Take public support for government programs, a key index of difference between the parties. Sixty-nine percent of Americans believe that "government should care for those who can't care for themselves" -- up 12 percent from 1994, the year of Newt Gingrich's anti-government "Contract With America."
Another remarkable finding concerned social conservatism -- the issue that inspired so much hand-wringing after the 2004 elections, with many pundits opining that most Democrats were simply too liberal and secular-minded on "values" issues to win. This was always overblown -- and, in fact, this and earlier Pew surveys have consistently found that Americans have been growing less conservative on social values issues over the last 20 years.
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