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With social conservatives suggesting they might opt for a third party candidate if abortion rights supporter Rudy Giuliani becomes the Republican presidential nominee, a review of possible third party and independent candidates for the presidency in 2008 is in order.
The $800 billion elephant in the room, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, has taken a lower profile in recent months, and talk of a Bloomberg candidacy has abated. However, those close to Bloomberg have said he might still run if the Democrats nominate Sen. Hillary Clinton and the GOP taps Mitt Romney. Since the major party picks may be clear before the end of February, Bloomberg would still have plenty of time to organize a campaign. But he seems reluctant to run if it looks like he could not win.
Ralph Nader, meanwhile, has said he will run if Clinton is the Democratic nominee, which is looking likely. While he stepped away from the Green Party in his 2004 bid, Nader has indicated he may return to the Greens in 2008. But he could face a major challenger for the Green nod in ex-Rep. Cynthia McKinney, whom some Greens sought out in 2004 and who is moving toward a run next year. In 2004, Nader received 465,650 votes, while little-known Green nominee David Cobb took 119,859. If Nader runs as an independent and McKinney as a Green, the vote from the democratic left could again be divided. (On a related note, the small Socialist Party, whose nominee got just 10,837 votes nationally in 2004, nominated Florida peace activist Brian Moore for president at its convention last weekend.)
Given the social conservative threat to bolt, the battle on the right could be more interesting, and more relevant. The Constitution Party could provide a vehicle for an anti-abortion alternative to Giuliani, but so far only a few perennial candidates have entered the race. But Minuteman Project founder Jim Gilchrist and recently-reemerged GOP presidential candidate Alan Keyes have also been mentioned as potential candidates.
Perhaps the most likely big name to make a third-party run is Rep. Ron Paul. He has done it before, as the Libertarian nominee in 1988, and has refused to say he will endorse the GOP ticket without reservation. Paul considered a second presidential run in 1992 and has toyed with it since, and he faces a tough bid for renomination in his Texas U.S. House district. He may be willing to cap his political career with another insurgent bid.
Paul's GOP primary race is doing better than even he expected -- the latest indicator was a generally flattering profile on Friday's NBC Nightly News -- and with Bloomberg seeming less likely, there has been talk of Paul grabbing the Unity08 nomination. The question: Is Paul, pro-life but iconoclastic, capable of becoming the right's alternative candidate? And what happens if, as some have speculated, he were to take Rep. Dennis Kucinich (who was pro-life for much of his congressional career) as his running mate?
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