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subsidies), though we're beginning to see them increase now. But many experts, including Tyler Cowen, a professor of economics at George Mason University, say they don't believe meat prices will rise high enough to affect demand in the United States.
"I just don't think we can count on market prices to reduce our meat consumption," he said. "There may be a temporary spike in food prices, but it will almost certainly be reversed and then some. But if all the burden is put on eaters, that's not a tragic state of affairs."
If price spikes don't change eating habits, perhaps the combination of deforestation, pollution, climate change, starvation, heart disease and animal cruelty will gradually encourage the simple daily act of eating more plants and fewer animals.
Mr. Rosegrant of the food policy research institute says he foresees "a stronger public relations campaign in the reduction of meat consumption - one like that around cigarettes - emphasizing personal health, compassion for animals, and doing good for the poor and the planet."
It wouldn't surprise Professor Eshel if all of this had a real impact. "The good of people's bodies and the good of the planet are more or less perfectly aligned," he said.
The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, in its detailed 2006 study of the impact of meat consumption on the planet, "Livestock's Long Shadow," made a similar point: "There are reasons for optimism that the conflicting demands for animal products and environmental services can be reconciled. Both demands are exerted by the same group of people ... the relatively affluent, middle- to high-income class, which is no longer confined to industrialized countries.... This group of consumers is probably ready to use its growing voice to exert pressure for change and may be willing to absorb the inevitable price increases."
In fact, Americans are already buying more environmentally friendly products, choosing more sustainably produced meat, eggs and dairy. The number of farmers' markets has more than doubled in the last 10 years or so, and it has escaped no one's notice that the organic food market is growing fast. These all represent products that are more expensive but of higher quality.
If those trends continue, meat may become a treat rather than a routine. It won't be uncommon, but just as surely as the SUV will yield to the hybrid, the half-pound-a-day meat era will end.
Maybe that's not such a big deal. "Who said people had to eat meat three times a day?" asked Mr. Pollan.
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