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After a series of election cycles in which the swing state of Iowa produced some of the nation's hottest races for seats in Congress, it appears that partisan competition is going to be a bit sparse this year by comparison. This was underscored when the candidate filing deadline that passed Friday afternoon produced modest Republican opposition to veteran Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin -- who had faced fierce general election battles in each of his previous four Senate elections.
This has prompted CQ Politics to change its rating on Harkin's race to Safe Democratic, the category for contests in which victory appears certain for the favored candidate. The rating had been Democrat Favored, a category that suggests at least a glimmer of a chance of an upset.
Harkin -- who was boosted to the chairmanship of the Agriculture Committee, an important post for heavily rural Iowa, by the Democrats' Senate takeover in the 2006 elections -- will face the winner of a Republican primary on June 3 that includes three candidates who are not well-known to state voters: George Eichhorn, a lawyer and former state representative; Steve Rathje, a businessman; and Christopher Reed, a businessman and Navy veteran.
By contrast, Harkin first won the seat in 1984 by unseating Republican incumbent Roger Jepsen, then was held to 54 percent or less in three re-election contests against GOP House incumbents (Tom Tauke in 1990, Jim Ross Lightfoot in 1996 and Greg Ganske in 2002).
Both of Iowa's current Republican House incumbents, Tom Latham of the 4th District and Steve King of the 5th District, considered entering this year's Senate race but decided against it.
Neither party seems to have made a huge candidate recruiting score in any of the state's three Democratic-held and two Republican-held U.S. House districts, including the two in eastern Iowa occupied by freshman Democrats: the 1st, where Bruce Braley won the 2006 race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Jim Nussle , and the 2nd, where Democrat Dave Loebsack upset long-popular Republican moderate Jim Leach that year.
CQ Politics currently rates all five House races as "safe" for the incumbent party, though the roster of candidates who have filed and the political environment in Iowa will be continually analyzed to determine if changes are warranted.
In fact, the most compelling congressional race in Iowa this year may not be in the November general election, but rather in the June 3 Democratic primary election between Leonard L. Boswell , a centrist Democrat who is seeking a sixth term in the 3rd District in and around Des Moines, and Ed Fallon, a liberal former state representative.
Fallon, a Des Moines resident who lost the Democratic primary for governor in 2006, entered the 3rd District race in January and has criticized Boswell's voting record. Among the issues on which Fallon has hammered Boswell are his vote in 2002 to authorize military operations in Iraq and his support last November for legislation to implement a trade agreement with Peru.
On Iraq, Fallon backs a short timetable to withdraw U.S. troops and has vowed to back legislation that bars the use of federal funds to continue military operations in that nation. Boswell, despite his vote for the war resolution, has criticized President Bush's handling of the conflict and has backed some proposals by congressional Democrats to set a timeline to begin withdrawing U.S. troops.
On trade issues, Fallon, like many liberal activists, generally views free trade pacts as hurting American workers. Boswell, in explaining his support for the Peru deal, said last month on the Iowa Press television program that the pact was a "good agreement" that included environmental and labor protections and "an opportunity for us to open markets."
On the same program, he criticized Fallon for backing the 2000 Green Party presidential campaign of Ralph Nader, the liberal political activist disliked by many Democrats who believe that he pulled votes away from Democratic nominee Al Gore that year and helped Republican George W. Bush win his razor-thin electoral vote victory.
Boswell is accustomed to vigorous competition, though more in general elections than in primaries. Boswell won by 5 percentage points over Republican state Sen. Jeff Lamberti in 2006, making it one of the closest contests for a House Democrat in a year in which none of the party's incumbents was defeated by a Republican challenger.
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